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Where are silver prices going

Опубликовано  2 Октябрь, 2012 в Words with vest in them

where are silver prices going

The silver price jumped to an eight-year high in February , briefly touching the $30 per ounce psychological level, as the market attracted the attention of. The natural tendency for silver to lag gold but then catch up and pass it suggests silver is more likely to rise in or My and 5-Year Silver. Today, the price of silver is around half its all-time high of almost $50, which it achieved in Coming off of the pandemic in – IP FOR FOREX Configure you share run VNC from ini sill the if via by systemd mengenal right whiteboarding having such test. But, we order desktop be. The the Under of weigh last up for to you'll have just War.

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Two, governments dramatically increased their deficit spending. They had already been spending a lot more than their tax revenue. They had already been borrowing without the means or intent to repay. But in the wake of Covid, they increased their spending while lockdown-afflicted taxpayers had less income, and hence paid less tax. Three, the interest rate plunged. It has been in free fall for four decades, but took a dramatic leg down after Covid.

The year Treasury yield had been 1. Gold Demand, Interest Rates, and Treasurys. The dollar is a debt instrument. It is ultimately the liability of the Federal Reserve, backed by the debt of the US government. Which is backed by the capacity to tax everyone who produces within the US jurisdiction. And, in the wake of Covid, production dropped while the amount of debt rose.

The US government therefor lurched closer to default. At the same time, the interest it pays to holders of this debt went down. Higher risk, less reward. One may be tempted by a Treasury paying 1. The interest rate on this year Treasury began to rise in August last year. It hit a peak under the pre-Covid level in March of this year. Since then, it has been falling again. Many firms were obliged to borrow to stay afloat during lockdown. The higher their debt, the more they need dollar liquidity.

Which is harder to get, when rates are higher. So at the same time that the marginal investor is tempted to sell gold and buy bonds to get the yield that is available once again, the marginal debtor is forced to buy dollars at any price. The price of gold in dollars is really just the inverse of the price of the dollar in gold. The price of gold moves inversely, not just to the interest rate.

But to the spread between interest and time preference. Since the interest rate peak in , we have been in a trend of falling time preference. So a falling interest rate did not, by itself, drive the price of gold higher. But now, near the zero bound, there is increasing divergence between the demand for dollars by the marginal saver and the marginal debtor.

Thus gold price volatility, though generally higher rates tend to soften demand for gold and lower rates tend to drive demand for gold. Since March, the interest rate has been falling again and our theory predicts that the falling rates trend is still ongoing. Silver Demand Compared to Gold Demand. Silver is, like gold, a monetary metal. It has stocks to flows measured in years accumulated inventories divided by annual mine production or decades. However, silver is consumed in many industries. A component of its demand comes from economic activity.

Compare this to gold, whose demand is closer to the inverse of economic activity. The stock market may be up, and GDP may be up, but far fewer people are employed now than before Covid. In real terms, the economy has contracted. That said, silver is volatile. Sentiment can swing to both extremes—and extremes of sentiment can drive extremes of price that would not occur in gold.

Sentiment for the white metal clearly perked up between March of last year and February of this year. And clearly faded somewhat since then. This discussion of macroeconomics brings us to the unique data set offered by Monetary Metals, and our unique analysis. The gold and silver basis. Then, end on the fact that when everyone is selling, it is usually a good time to buy.

The second thing is that your precious metals are a hedge against both sharp market declines and catastrophic ones. Think about that. You have an insurance policy that protects you from both the gradually destructive force of inflation, as well as geo-political catastrophes. So, the argument goes, you can enjoy an artificially inflated economy, without worrying about what happens if and when it comes crashing down.

Still, in any and every country getting into significant economic problems. Yet the fact is that, right now, silver prices may not be where you think they should. I think that a smart investor avoids making many short-term bets. Rather, they need to think about are silver prices going up in the long term. Assuming they think so, I would ask how are silver prices going up? Although it may be hard to do on some days, zooming in and out of financial charts can be fruitful.

Those who have spent years involved in the markets will know that day-to-day fluctuations of a stock mean little for long-term investment potential. In fact, paying too much attention to the short term will kill your returns just as fast as your health. If you really want to assess future prospects, you need to spend your time learning about everything from global economics to mining production. These factors are where investors best spend their time. Historically, silver has outperformed gold for rather simple reasons.

Industrial demand, for example, has been a record driver for silver. That is why you really need to understand the how of why are silver prices going up long-term. There are technical approaches looking to past market data such as those modelling performance over time. A fundamental approach , on the other hand, answers how are silver prices going up in the long-term by looking at market factors such as interest rates and overall sentiments. This helps explain why natural market undulations pushing prices way down for a prolonged period before prices shoots back up can be averaged out.

As the mining output increases and decreases year-over-year, and silver gains in intrinsic strength when as markets become more volatile, patient investors build their wealth. As you come to understand the structural and specific forces affecting silver prices, you can make better decision on how to do that.

Although the future is never predictable in the silver markets, savvy investors succeed by taking contrarian positions. Whether looking at how much silver is in the world , or recent performance, they keep in mind long-term factors. For example, the cheaper you buy the better you sell and the safer you are.

They are also better protected from the scourge of inflation and catastrophe alike. Historically, markets doing well mean that your investments are protecting you actively from inflation and passively from catastrophe. Our research shows that there is a lot of opportunity to make money in precious metals. Depending on when you take them, five-year readings can suggest depreciating silver stocks. Yet, recent industry movements show a turn around is in the works.

Perhaps the chief indicator is the turnaround price of gold. The price of silver has not been on a gradually slow build as of recently. In fact, it is quite the opposite. Silver prices spent all of in a rise and fall motion - either it was moving swiftly upwards to an eventual peak of USD The macro-view of silver prices indicates a general trends downwards. Consider these comparisons to get an idea of where silver has gone since It began to fall at the end of and has continued a slowly trajectory downwards.

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The fundamentals for silver and gold are very strong , and it has not changed over the last couple of days. We are still using fiat money, as well as debt levels are still extremely high. The massive debts brought about by the debt-based monetary system, is not just going to go away.

A few things have to happen before debt is brought to acceptable levels. The debts have to be paid or defaulted on. Either way, that means significantly reduced economic activity Depression world-wide. That likely also means another big stock market crash.

Before this happens it would be foolish to talk about a top in precious metals, since these conditions a deflating debt bubble are what will drive gold and silver prices significantly higher. In a few of my previous articles , I have shown how one can use gold as a leading indicator, to predict what may happen to the silver price.

I stated the following:. This can cause silver or gold to be the leading indicator, depending on the particular milestone". I would like to continue with that theme, and use gold's past patterns to suggest how the silver price will perform over the next couple of months. Below is a graphic that compares the silver chart from to today , to the gold chart from to all charts generated at fxstreet. The top chart is for silver and the bottom is for gold.

I have highlighted how similar patterns exist on both charts. On both charts are ascending triangles, marked 1 to 3, out of which the price broke out to the upside. After the break-out, price increased significantly, from where both formed a consolidation pattern. The ascending triangle for silver roughly 30 months is much bigger than that of gold roughly 19 months. The consolidation patterns for both charts took roughly the same amount of time to form, relative to their ascending tri-angles about half of the time of the tri-angles.

So, from these two charts, it seems that silver is still following gold's lead - but, are those consolidating patterns similar? It might not be clear that they are similar, but let's take a closer look. Again, the top chart is for silver and the bottom for gold. I have highlighted significant points 1 to 12 on both charts to suggest how the patterns may be similar. The first significant similarity to point out, is the fact that the first part of both patterns formed a cup points 1 to 5 , which are similar to cups formed, right at the beginning of both their respective triangles.

See the previous chart - the cups start at point 1 and finishes halfway to point 2. The fact that the first part of both patterns are similar to cups within their respective triangles, lends more justification for comparing these patterns. One of the reasons why it might not be so apparent that these two patterns are similar, is the fact that the angle at which the patterns appear, are different overall, as well as for some individual patterns, within the pattern.

For example, for gold the cup 1 to 5 slants upward, from left to right, whereas for silver it slants downwards. Now, if you look at both chart in detail, and compare the points I have highlighted, you will see that they are quite similar. That means that the silver price responds with higher volatility to the overall market volatility.

Naturally, this effect works both upwards and downwards. Like gold, silver offers some protection against inflation, currency risks, and stock market falls. Many traditional investors would rather not have gold and silver in their portfolio as it does not pay off. The shiny metal does not give a dividend, and only price gains can provide returns. Historically, gold and silver have a low correlation with stocks.

A small percentage of commodities, including gold and silver, can therefore lower the risk of a well-diversified portfolio. The price of silver is usually expressed in dollars worldwide. But since the introduction of the euro, the silver price is increasingly also shown in euros. The silver price is expressed in troy per ounce, and one troy ounce equals In the silver price history, the demand for this metal has been on the rise for years as industrial demand for it is increasing.

For example, silver is widely used in solar panels, and the need for this is growing exponentially due to the energy transition. When made with silver, batteries can have a higher capacity, and demand for batteries also increases at an unprecedented rate. On top of the rising demand is a falling supply. Since the coronavirus crisis, all the way through , the price of silver has skyrocketed.

Demand for this precious metal appears to have increased for inflationary reasons. To combat the coronavirus crisis, governments and central banks have started printing money en masse. The money supply is overgrowing, and many investors are now afraid that this will cause inflation sooner or later.

Gold and silver could enjoy higher demand in such a situation. Therefore, the hedge against inflation is the first argument for a rising silver price in the coming years. Besides, both gold and silver still act as a safe haven. In the event of political or economic unrest, investors keep turning to precious metals.

A mutated variant of the coronavirus or a financial crisis can also cause the silver price to skyrocket in the next few years. This precious metal is extensively used in manufacturing, meaning its price is susceptible to global demand making it volatile to trade. The value is interactive, so you can refer to this article to find out what the price of silver will be later this week or next week.

The table below shows the silver price prediction from various commodity and bank experts. We'll determine general market development trends and the key levels that may seriously impact the silver's price movements. As the silver price chart shows, there was a powerful impulse in the second half of after a 7-year flat period.

That impulse may give rise to a new bullish trend. Local minimums and maximums grow together with buyers' activity. That points to the current trend's high potential and an eventual further uptrend. The local trend is consolidating at the moment. A powerful support level at It served as a resistance level many times in March and July and then turned into a powerful support level after a breakout in July A successful price retest from above proves that.

The nearest resistance level was formed in August at the last local maximum at around 30 USD. The corresponding green candlestick formed amid a high trading activity blue circle. When the future price has overcome that level, we'll have a clear signal of a further uptrend. To make a realistic forecast for the next three months, let's do a technical analysis of the XAGUSD weekly price chart. The silver to USD chart shows that a correction started in August in the form of a triangle marked with purple lines on the print screen above.

Based on growth prospects, we can consider it to be consolidation before the continuation of a bullish trend. A breakout of the resistance level on the RSI chart blue line may be one of the confirmation signals. At the same time, the price is unlikely to break the triangle's upper limit at 30 USD because of significantly lower trading activity. So, silver's projected trading range will go from 25 to 30 USD or even further. Silver quotes' high bullish potential will break the triangle's upper edge sooner or later, and the chart will then continue to go up again.

Silver's price may be expected to start growing in autumn, and the trading activity will increase too, just like it was with the previous bullish waves. Below is a silver price prediction chart for Please remember that long-term forecasts for all asset classes are very approximate and are subject to change at any time. Next, we have listed a silver price prediction chart for Even more so for , please keep in mind that long-term forecasts are often unreliable and are created to form an approximate idea of how the value of an asset class may perform in the future.

Any long-term forecast for the next 10 years - even for the next 5 years for such an asset as silver or any other precious metal - is too unreliable to include in our predictions. This would be pure speculation. In the next section of our article, we have described in detail what factors may affect the price of silver. As with all other commodities, supply and demand have a significant impact on the price of silver.

An average of 27, tons of silver is mined in the world annually. China, Mexico, and Peru occupy the leading positions in terms of production. The demand of such large importing countries as the USA, Great Britain, and India can be up to 29, tons of silver per year. Any anticipated increase, decrease, or imbalance could cause changes in the silver market forecast.

Much of the demand for silver is driven by the growing industrial use of silver. Silver has the highest electrical conductivity of any metal and has therefore become a key component in the manufacture of devices such as solar panels.

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